The Final Four is upon us. The original 68 teams have been whittled down to just four. There have been lots of upsets and surprises. The team everyone is talking about is this year’s “Cinderella team” Florida Atlantic. FAU has beaten Memphis, Fairleigh Dickinson, Tennessee and Kansas State to make it to the big show. FAU has been this year’s biggest bracket buster.
In the last 5 years the underdog has performed very well. The underdog is 19-10-1 for a 65% cover rate. Will that trend continue this year? There is no telling. You better believe that sportsbooks really enjoy it when underdogs win and cover. The public typically bet the favorite in big games.
The biggest underdog to cover in the Final Four in recent years was two years ago when UCLA was a whopping 14 point underdog to Gonzaga. The Zags pulled off the 3 point win 93-90. The Bulldogs would then go on to lose straight up to Baylor to whom they were 4 point favorites. Baylor was the only underdog to be getting 4 or more points in the final game to win straight up since Syracuse did it twenty years ago. In 2003 the ‘Cuse beat Kansas who was favored by 5.5 points.